When Street Meets the State: Public and Government Interactions on China’s Foreign Policy

This thesis investigates whether and how domestic public opinion influences China’s foreign policy, and under what conditions such influence occurs. Situated in the context of China, it extends the understanding on the public opinion’s influence on foreign policy. The study proposes a novel theoretical framework combining a “dynamic feedback loop” model and a “conditional influence matrix” to conceptualise state–society interactions. The feedback loop model depicts an iterative process in which public sentiment and government policy continuously shape each other, rather than a one-way influence. The conditional influence matrix identifies key factors – such as issue type, issue severity, regime legitimacy needs, modes of public mobilisation, and the international environment – that determine when public opinion can constrain or incentivise policymakers. Methodologically, the thesis employs comparative case studies and process tracing to examine multiple foreign policy episodes, tracing how public outrage or support emerges and how Chinese leaders respond across varying contexts.

The findings show that public opinion plays a significant yet conditional role in Chinese foreign policy, but its impact is carefully managed by the state. The feedback loop shows that public opinion and policy co-evolve in an iterative, state-calibrated cycle: in most scenarios, the state frame crises first, selectively amplify or dampen nationalist mobilisation, and then adjust policy while re-setting public expectations. Responsiveness to mass opinion is real but bounded, state permitted when it strengthens bargaining leverage or legitimacy, and restricted when it threatens diplomatic flexibility or regime control. The conditional-influence matrix shows that public opinion shapes Chinese foreign policy only when high-severity sovereignty or dignity issues intersect with regime-legitimacy needs and the state adopts a permissive or supportive mobilisation attitude; otherwise, the state would contain or redirect sentiment. Among the conditioning variables, issue nature/severity and legitimacy needs are decisive, with mobilisation mode and government response mediating effects and the international environment modulating but rarely determining outcomes.

These findings extend the understanding on this issue by demonstrating that even authoritarian leaders face context-dependent domestic audience cost. This thesis also refines Putnam’s two-level game framework for authoritarian contexts by showing how Chinese policymakers negotiate international outcomes while modulating internal pressures within a controlled political arena. Empirically, the analysis yields nuanced insights into Chinese foreign policy-making processes, illuminating how public sentiment and state strategy co-evolve in practice. Overall, the study advances our understanding of international relations in authoritarian systems by integrating domestic public opinion into the analysis of foreign policy decision-making.

摘要

本硕士论文考察了国内公众舆论是否以及如何影响中国的外交政策，并进一步探讨这种影响发生的条件。立足中国语境，研究拓展了对“公众舆论—外交政策”关系的既有理解。论文提出一套新的理论框架，将“动态反馈回路”模型与“条件性影响矩阵”结合，用以概念化国家—社会互动。前者描绘公众情绪与政府政策相互塑造的迭代过程，而非单向因果关系；后者识别决定舆论何时能够影响外交政策/行为的关键因素——包括议题类型、议题严重性、政权合法性需求、公众动员方式以及国际环境。方法上，论文采用比较个案研究与过程追踪，重建多起外交事件中“舆情生成—国家响应—政策调整”的机制性链条。

研究发现，公众舆论在中国外交中确有作用但具条件性，其影响受到国家的审慎管理。动态反馈回路的检验表明，舆论与政策在国家校准之下共同演化：多数情境中，由国家首先定义事件/框定危机、选择性放大或压制民族主义动员，继而调整政策并重置公众预期。对民意的响应真实存在但有边界：当其有助于提升谈判筹码或巩固合法性时得到许可；当其威胁外交灵活性或政权控制时则被限制。条件性影响矩阵的检验进一步显示：只有当高严重性的主权或国家尊严议题与合法性需求相交，且国家采取容许或支持性的动员取向时，舆论才会显著地塑造外交；否则国家将遏制或引导情绪转移。在各条件变量中，议题性质/严重性与合法性需求具有决定性；动员方式与政府反应发挥中间作用；国际环境具有调制而少有决定效应。

这些发现通过揭示即便在威权（非民主）体制下领导人亦面临情境依赖的“国内受众成本”，拓展了该领域的理论认识。论文还在威权语境下细化了普特南“双层博弈”框架，展示中国决策者如何在受控信息与政治场域中一边调节内部压力、一边推进对外博弈。在经验证据层面，研究对中国外交决策流程提供了更为细腻的洞见，阐明公众情绪与国家战略如何在实践中共同演化。总体而言，将国内公众舆论纳入外交决策分析，有助于深化对威权体制中国际关系运作逻辑的理解。

Pass.